Insights
Market Review for June 2026
Award-winning: Pathfinder scooped two awards in June
Hope in the Middle East?: Short-term truce agreed between the US and Iran
Another heatwave in Europe: Why lethal temperatures continue to be a wake-up call
Tech stocks and interest rates: Debt, debt, and more debt
Hands off our bush: The Conservation Amendment Bill, we have notes
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The world’s a pretty gloomy place right now so let’s start this month’s update with some good news. In case you missed it, Pathfinder scooped two Mindful Money awards in June.
They were for the following categories, and we’ve included the judges’ commentary that explains why they voted for us:
- Best Ethical Investment Provider: “Pathfinder is continuing to innovate and provide leadership in the ethical investment sector. They have increased their investment in positive outcomes and made a commitment to the Net Zero Asset Manager Initiative for climate action. Ethical values are core to their strategy and investments [1].”
- Best Integration of Positive Outcomes: “Their strategy integrates investments for positive outcomes across their investment portfolios. They have made innovative and impactful investments into a range of private capital companies with positive outcomes [2].”
Our team was thrilled to be recognised for the important work that we do every day on behalf of our members. A big thanks goes to the team at Mindful Money for their diligence, integrity and passion.
We’d also like to say a big thanks to all our members for believing in us, and for joining the mission to shape a better world through investing ethically.
Hope in the Middle East?
With regards to financial markets in June, the most noticeable event of the month was the fragile ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran. Technically, it was a Memorandum of Understanding (or, ‘MOU’ for short), known as the Islamabad Memorandum, and it committed both sides to a 60-day negotiating window covering the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear programme, on top of an immediate halt to military operations [3].
From a people perspective, it was excellent news and hopefully avoids any more needless bloodshed. But "ceasefire" should be read with a caveat: within days of signing, both sides had already traded strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, a reminder of just how fragile this truce really is.
From an investor perspective, it was significant because it saw the price of oil falling in anticipation of the Straight of Hormuz – one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes – reopening, and therefore boosting oil supply.
As a reminder, oil price is negatively correlated to supply which means that when supply rises, the price falls (and vice versa).
For markets, falling oil prices are significant because it leads over time to lower inflation (and vice versa). And lower inflation typically means lower interest rates, which broadly speaking, bodes well for equities.
By the end of the month, oil prices had pretty much returned to their pre-war levels for the first time since the conflict started [4].
As an ethical investor, the world’s reliance on oil supply is troubling, not least because of the global economy’s vulnerability to it. Events in Iran are an important reminder of the need for economies to embrace the transition towards cleaner, more sustainable energy supplies to diversify risk and support better environmental outcomes.
Heatwave in Europe (again)
Moving to Europe now, and there were crazy scenes in the region last month, amid a record-breaking heatwave that was attributed to 1,300 excess deaths [5].
The fact that temperatures punched through the 40-degree Celsius barrier in large parts of the continent was an important wake-up call about the real-time dangers of climate change.
Human cost aside, European economies are now increasingly at the mercy of summer heatwaves with one recent research report suggesting they could cost the region’s key economies as much as $638 billion by the end of 2030 [6].
Denial and topic-exhaustion do little to prevent human tragedy and economic damage. For us at Pathfinder, the need to address climate change has always been clear.
Tech stocks and interest rates
There was a brief sell-off in tech stocks last month, as investor sentiment towards AI temporarily waned [7].
Not for the first time, doubts crept in about the ability of AI’s industry leaders to deliver on their promises. More specifically, to repay the massive I.O.Us – often in the form of bond issuances - that have so-far propelled them forwards [8].
Another example of this came in June when SpaceX – Elon Musk’s space and tech venture – launched its IPO. In simple terms, it turned itself from a private company to a public company, enabling the public to buy shares in it. That event made Musk the world’s first trillionaire [9], and was quickly followed by the firm’s decision to issue $25 billion USD worth of bonds [10]. In other words, yet more debt would be relied on in an industry that appears to be addicted to it.
The added complication in June came via the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank in the world’s largest economy. Under new leadership in the form of Trump-nominee Kevin Warsh, the Fed opted in June to keep its interest rate range on hold at 3.5% to 3.75% [11]. However, it pretty much soft planted the idea that there could be at least one US rate hike by the end of 2026 (nine of the Fed's 18 policymakers now expect one).
Worth noting: the Fed's caution is largely a hangover from the Iran conflict, which pushed May inflation to 4.2% on higher energy prices. If June's falling oil prices hold, that pressure should ease over the coming months, but the Fed's June decision was made looking in the rear-view mirror.
If we join the dots together now: Among other things, what do higher interest rates mean? Higher debt servicing costs. And which sector is currently built on record-breaking piles of debt? AI.
Hence why in June, investors started querying whether their faith in AI could be rewarded, and whether the debt obligations were becoming unsustainable.
For now, the jury is out on that one.
Hands off our bush
From AI to Aotearoa, and the news that you may have seen about the Conservation Amendment Bill.
You can read our feedback (based on the analysis from Forest & Bird) in this special article – ‘Feedback on the Conservation Amendment Bill’ - that we wrote at the end of June.
Needless to say, as a Kiwi ethical investor with a special interest in the environment, there were parts of this Bill that concerned us. Our country’s environment is unique and special, and its natural assets must be protected.
The whole thing is giving Dr Seuss The Lorax vibes. Stop the nonsense before it’s too late.
What this means for your money
Here's the good news: none of June's headlines should keep you up at night. That oil price rollercoaster around Iran? We don't own oil companies, so it barely touched your funds. The AI stocks that wobbled? Sure, we hold some of the big tech names, but only about as much as any global fund naturally would, not because we've bet the house on the AI hype. The one place worth keeping an eye on is our bonds, where a future interest rate hike could put some short-term pressure on prices before the higher returns start flowing through, but that's a normal part of how bonds work, not a warning sign. In short: a wild month in the headlines, a pretty steady one for your money.
Sources & further reading
[1] https://mindfulmoney.nz/learn/press-release-2026-awards-recipients/
[2] https://mindfulmoney.nz/learn/press-release-2026-awards-recipients/
[3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0jy7d7wzv4o
[4] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
[5] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4d2vv935lo
[7] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/23/tech-stocks-sell-off-mag7-samsung-sk-hynix.html
[10] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/23/spacex-debt-bond-market-ipo.html
[11] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm
