Insights
Market review for October 2025
This month:
Record-breaking heat: A pre-COP wake-up call
Nvidia becomes the world’s first USD $5 trillion company
Precious metals shine, Russian oil falters
US-Canada relations sour
US-China relations improve
Japan gets its first female Prime Minister
NZ inflation rises to 3%
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Mounting speculation that an AI-linked stock market correction was brewing triggered a flight to safety by some investors, with precious metals being one of the preferred ports of call. Gold and silver prices surged in line with rising investor demand (increasing the value of your jewellery collection[1]), before eventually moderating.
Despite the nerves, stock markets climbed ever higher. Nvidia, the darling of the AI world, continued its winning streak, becoming the first company ever to be valued at USD $5 trillion.
At the end of the month, the US economy got a helping hand from the US Federal Reserve which cut interest rates for only the second time this year.
Running hot
Several eye-catching events again highlighted the true scale of the climate emergency that faces us. From mosquitos being found in Iceland for the first time[2], to one of the hottest ever Octobers being recorded in parts of Australia[3], it was a month for the record books.
The severity of the issue was drilled home by UN General Security, Antonio Guterres. When speaking to journalists in the run-up to COP30 he lamented that “humanity has failed to limit man-made global warming to the totemic 1.5ºC, leading to “devastating consequences[4]”.
His subsequent call-to-action for the world to step up emission reduction efforts resonated with us at Pathfinder. That said, ethical investors like us can’t do it on our own. Events like COP30 risk overpromising and underdelivering unless policy makers, corporates, citizens, and governments work in unison and at pace.
An NZ own goal?
And on that note, we were disappointed to see that NZ’s listed companies now face less stringent reporting rules with regards to climate disclosures.
Previously, listed companies worth NZD $60 million or more were required to report on climate related disclosures. The number of listed companies required to report has gone down from around 164 entities to approximately 76. Their Directors were also personally liable for any breaches. However, as a result of changes to the climate-related disclosures (CRD) regime, only companies worth NZD $1 billion or more are now obligated to disclose breaches. Their Directors are also no longer personally liable.
As ethical investors, the more information we can get, the better equipped we are to assess a company's non-financial ethos and impact. As our CEO John Berry says, “This information helped investors understand the risk in companies that they might not see in financial terms.”
Politics, tariffs, and sanctions
October saw Sanae Takaichi becoming Japan’s 104th Prime Minister, and its first ever female PM. Her win opens the door to a welcome period of political stability and potential structural reform of Japan’s economy. Investors reacted favourably, with Japanese equities benefitting from the so-called ‘Takaichi trade’.
In other news, relations soured between Canada and the US, after a brief period of reconciliation. The trigger was a critical TV ad from the Ontario government which featured parts of the former US President Ronald Regan’s anti-tariff speech from1987.
Further afield, the White House announced imminent sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. It was an attempt to choke the funds behind Russia’s war machine.
As a result, crude oil prices rose because the market now expects a reduced supply, given the constraints of those two companies. Remember, lower supply but stable or higher demand increases prices. And vice versa.
It wasn’t all bad news, however. There were encouraging signs that the US and China were in the mood to resolve their trade war. The world’s two biggest economies were said to have agreed a framework for how they re-set their trade relationship. This would bode well for the global economy more broadly.
Tesla stalls, and computer says no
So far, the latest US corporate earnings season, seen as a bellwether for broader economic health, has been largely good.
However, Tesla, one of the Magnificent-7 stocks, reported a quarterly income – (in technical terms, its Q3 adjusted net income) - that fell short of analyst expectations. It blamed US tariffs for increasing its costs.
The company also took a hit from the fact that it can no longer bank on revenue earned by selling emissions credits to higher-polluting market peers. In light of a recent US government policy change, there is less incentive for the polluters to buy such credits.
In other news, Amazon, another ”Magnificent 7” stock, generated headlines. First came the news that its cloud computing business, AWS, had caused widespread disruption when its services temporarily outed. Later in the month, the broader Amazon Group announced 14,000 job losses. With AI and role automation cited as key catalysts, the news was seen by some as a sign of things to come in the world of work.
Labour bets on taxes
Lastly, back in New Zealand there were some interesting developments worth commenting on. While Pathfinder is politically neutral, in recognition of the broad community that constitutes our membership, one policy announcement by Labour caught our attention.
The party’s declaration that it would charge a capital gains tax on some residential and commercial properties in order to fund GP visits: a punchy attempt to draw battle lines ahead of next year’s election. One of the goals was to encourage more investment in domestic assets other than property. Another objective was to free-up housing stock in the Kiwi market (by disincentivising landlords).
There’s been plenty of robust debate from both sides about this latest attempt to tax property. As an ethical investor, we see the benefits of using investing (i.e. in financial markets) to grow assets over the long-term. We’ve also taken action to help address the acute shortage of affordable and state housing in Aotearoa – see our CHFA Impact Story (link) for more information.
With that in mind, we’re interested in policies that aim to encourage more investing and less multi-property ownership during a time of shortage. This is not an endorsement but rather a reminder that investing should be front-and-centre of discussions about New Zealander’s long-term financial wellbeing. Especially when inflation is sticky – NZ inflation rose to 3% in October - and cash rates are expected to fall. Investing deserves more attention as a means of strengthening Kiwi finances over time.
Performance and Returns
As for the Pathfinder KiwiSaver Plan and Managed Funds, the short, medium and long-term performance data can be viewed here at any time.
View our ethical performance
Ethical Scorecard for:
Ethical Growth Fund
Ethical Trans-Tasman Fund
Global Responsibility Fund
Global Property Fund
Global Water Fund
KiwiSaver Growth Fund
KiwiSaver Conservative Fund
KiwiSaver Balanced Fund
View our Sustainability Report
Sources & Further Reading
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Pathfinder Asset Management Limited is the issuer of the Pathfinder KiwiSaver Plan and Pathfinder Investment Funds. Product Disclosure Statements for these offers are available at pathfinder.kiwi. Learn more about how we invest ethically by reading our Ethical Investment Policy & Exceptions Register on our website.
