Insights
Market Review for November 2025
Was COP30 a failure? Has the AI trade run out of puff? Do the numbers on National’s KiwiSaver pledge add up?
COP30: Why we don’t like what we saw
Nvidia’s latest earnings settled market nerves
A lower OCR reduces the appeal of some Term Deposits
National unveils a 12% goal for KiwiSaver
Japan and China quarrel over Taiwan
UN Security Council endorses Trump’s Gaza plan
For ethical investors, November was a heady mix of reward and disappointment.
On the one hand, financial markets remained in good health, with US-listed tech stocks recovering from a bout of weakness to stagger a solid finish to the month. Global bond markets also continued to hold up well relative to recent years.
On the other hand, COP30 in Brazil was a sweltering mess of division, debate, and in our view, dud results.
Tech’s twists and turns
Let’s start with the major stock market story of the month which came courtesy of one giant tech company - yes, you guessed it, Nvidia.
The world’s first $5 trillion-valued company[1] continues to set the tone for many investors this year, and ahead of its results announcement there was much speculation that the AI theme was running out of puff.
In the end, the opposite played out. Having reported strong earnings yet again, the perceived strength of the AI trendsetter re-energised stock markets.
Later in the month came the news that Google was making up ground on Nvidia with its own AI capabilities. Nvidia’s share price dipped as a result, but it remains the one of the brightest stars in the tech sphere for the time being.
Don’t panic!
Market jitters early in the month caused some of our members to contact us and express their concerns that a tech bubble was about to burst.
While we can’t offer you personalised advice, we are always happy to offer key context if we think it can help you make sense of confusing global events.
With that in mind, here’s broadly what we shared with members who contacted us about tech stock concerns :
“Our view is that it would be unwise for long-term investors , such as those in KiwiSaver, to focus on timing the market or predicting the future. Market corrections are surprisingly common over a long-term investment journey. They may prove to be short or long in duration, but history shows us that markets rebound. History shows that staying invested for the long-haul, even during market turbulence, is statistically more likely to achieve positive returns.
If you are especially concerned about risk from share investments, it is important to make sure you are in the right risk profile fund (conservative, balanced, growth or high growth)."
If you’re feeling a little more nervous than usual, we hope that helps. And if you avoided panic selling in November, well done!
COP30: A hot mess
If you read our ‘Good COP, bad COP?’ blog last month, you’ll be aware that November saw Brazil host the latest instalment of the UN’s annual COP climate summit.
Summit attendees spent two gruelling weeks in the sweltering heat trying to agree how the world can reduce emissions as well as cap rising global temperatures.
Now, this is the part where we take a deep breath and try to explain what happened without losing our minds: In a normal world, you would think that the link between burning fossil fuels and rising global temperatures was explicit. This was certainly the view of COP delegates from the UK and European Union who pushed for that connection to be made clear in the summit’s pledges[2].
However, COP30 was an example of the folly that sometimes plays out on the global stage. Countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, both of whom rely on oil extraction to power their economies, repeatedly blocked efforts to link fossil fuels to emissions targets. Call us cynical but this feels like profit being prioritised over planet.
In the end, what transpired was a soft, non-legally binding pledge by voting members to honour emissions targets that were first agreed two years ago. The wording of the agreement also linked fossil fuels and emissions reductions implicitly, rather than explicitly.
At Pathfinder, we feel that COP30 was a missed opportunity. It was disappointing to see oil-producing giants once again seemingly refuse to acknowledge basic science. That said, this approach from oil producers is no longer surprising given their vested interest in the status quo – and indeed it serves as a reminder of the scale and complexity and challenge we all face in finding long-term solutions to the climate crisis.
Of course, a better future relies on the transition away from fossil fuels. China is providing a generally positive example here. It is now the world’s leader in solar energy – the country is proof that you can evolve at pace and accelerate the adoption of renewables if you want to. That said, we can’t cheerlead for China too much as its President was a no-show at COP30, as was Donald Trump.
COP30 felt like one step forwards, and a couple of steps back.
Lower NZ rates: Time to reassess your finances?
Back at home, there was good news for Kiwi borrowers but bad news for savers. The Reserve Bank cut NZ’s OCR for the second time in a row, this time by 0.25%.
The new OCR of 2.25% is intended to re-energise our sleepy economy by, amongst other things, making it cheaper for businesses to borrow, to invest, and to hire.
If you’re a saver who relies on Term Deposits, the prospect of lower rates of return potentially merits a broader review of your finances. In an environment of falling rates, you may want to consider reallocating more cash to your investments, for example, where the potential for returns should theoretically be higher.
This is the part where we need to remind you that investments carry risk, and you may get back less than you invest. The paragraph above is not intended as advice but more a broad observation that lower rates may alter how you want to plan for your financial future.
The next OCR decision by the Reserve Bank will be in February 2026.
KiwiSaver enters the election chat…
Sticking with news from NZ, the National Party unveiled its first election pledge. If elected, the party promised to lift default KiwiSaver contributions gradually to 12%, in line with Australia’s superannuation funding policy.
As a KiwiSaver provider, we think policies that enhance and strengthen a national culture of retirement savings make sense. Calling out the elephant in the room here, we obviously have vested interests in this happening, but we see wider benefits as well.
For instance, KiwiSavers are invested both globally and locally, with a significant percent invested back into the NZ economy via debt, listed companies and private assets. A higher contribution rate means more capacity to invest in ourselves (infrastructure, quality jobs, innovative companies, climate solutions). This could help us build greater collective financial independence and a better future for our grandchildren.
However, it wasn't clear in the policy announcement whether employers will be expected to pick up the slack, or whether employees will see the difference being taken from their pay cheques.
We expect employers to avoid the 'total remuneration’ loophole and honour the intention of KiwiSaver – to help Kiwis save for their well-deserved retirement.
A tense world
At a global level, tensions around the world continued to make news headlines.
In Asia, a fallout between Japan and China was sparked by the Japanese PM’s pledge to protect Taiwan in the event of a (hypothetical) Chinese invasion.
Invasion from the perspective of Taiwan, reunification from the perspective of China; increased risk of conflict no matter what word you use.
China responded by cancelling tourism to Japan, as well as taking other trade measures that could damage Japan's economy the longer the matter drags on.
Meanwhile in Eastern Europe, the Russian invasion of Ukraine saw more bloodshed but the US increased efforts last month to bring both sides to the negotiating table.
Trump’s team hopes to repeat the success of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire which while fragile, is still holding up. Last month, the UN Security Council voted in favour of the resolution that supports Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza.
Warfare is a painful reminder of the harsh reality of life for some countries around the world. At Pathfinder, we don't support violence, military threats or war as a means to resolve disputes. As ethical investors, we focus on where we can have the most impact: striving to avoid supporting weapons manufacturers by applying exclusions to our investment process. You can read more about our weapons exclusions in our Ethical Investment Policy here.
Final thoughts
While it’s been a volatile year in financial markets it would appear that 2025 is on course to be a relatively good one for long-term investors.
As an ethical investor, we are dismayed by some of the events that have played out around the world. But we firmly believe that ethical investing has a role to play in contributing to a better planet. In a confusing and complex world, ethical investing offers a way to pursue returns while still considering the impact you have on those around you.
As a reminder, you can see the performance of our Managed Funds and our KiwiSaver Funds by clicking here at any time.
Sources & further reading
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Pathfinder recommends all investors receive financial advice before making an investment decision. Pathfinder Asset Management Limited is the issuer of the Pathfinder KiwiSaver Plan and Pathfinder Investment Funds. Product Disclosure Statements for the offers are available at pathfinder.kiwi. Learn more about how we invest ethically by reading our Ethical Investment Policy here.
