Insights
Market review for July 2025
US-tech stocks soar but global challenges mount…
This month:
Global trade tensions hit home
A $4 trillion milestone is reached, twice
Temperatures soar in the Nordics
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We’re now over halfway through the year and investors continue to clamber over a multitude of unlevel playing fields in the search for returns. Conditions in July were no different, but there were some noticeable winners and losers.
At a global level, wide-ranging trade tariffs and soaring US tech stocks all added to the drama. Meanwhile for Kiwis, the rising price of NZ-made butter - (+120% over a decade) - was one of the hottest topics of conversation. Despite ongoing domestic price pressures, both inside and outside the fridge, the Reserve Bank decided against trimming the OCR and kept it at 3.25% in July.
From a performance perspective, all but one of Pathfinder’s Managed Funds and KiwiSaver Funds posted positive absolute returns for the month. As a reminder, you can see our funds’ short, medium and long-term performance data at any time by clicking here.
A $4 trillion dollar milestone x 2
July will be remembered as the month when two tech giants reached dizzy new heights. A bit like buses, you wait for one $4 trillion company, and then two come along at once!
First, Nvidia - the darling of the AI space - hit the $4 trillion (USD) valuation mark during last month’s US earnings season. It was a staggering achievement given the relative youthfulness of the firm, and its very recent stratospheric growth.
Not to be outdone, Microsoft was hot-on-its-heels, also hitting the $4 trillion (USD) valuation mark last month. In parallel, there were positive earnings results from Apple and Amazon.
An insatiable global appetite for AI and tech themes continues to catalyse US stock markets in 2025. In parallel, however, current events are also shining a light on the realities of modern-day tech usage, for example in the defence sector. The horrendous situation in Gaza, as highlighted in a recent UN report, brought this home in July and led us to review the activities and potential linkages of several large technology companies. You can read more about it in this special blog.
Tariff friction heats up
The wall of uncertainty facing Corporate America is also feeding through to the jobs market. US employment numbers deteriorated in July, with a mere 73,000 new jobs added. In parallel, prior job numbers for June and May were revised downwards, further highlighting the structural issues now at play. President Trump’s interpretation was that “Job Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad". He promptly fired the head of the statistics agency in an unprecedented move that unnerved markets and arguably underscores risks regarding the erosion of independence of key institutions in the US.
Around the world, tariff decision-making continued to catch people off guard. Last month’s noticeable losers were Switzerland (39% tariff on exports to the US) and Brazil (50%). The Swiss Franc fell in the immediate aftermath of the punitive announcement.
New Zealand escaped relatively lightly with its own tariff set at 15%. The European Union also stepped back from the brink of a trade war and ceded to a 15% levy on its exports.
COP this
In last month’s update, we shone a light on a range of climate-related problems currently impacting countries around the world. Unfortunately, the bad news kept coming in July with the revelation that Nordic countries had experienced a record, and sustained heatwave. Temperatures in excess of 30°C were recorded for large parts of the month.
With COP30, the UN’s climate change conference, only a few months away now, this uncomfortable development for the Nordics will hopefully sharpen minds. Not only about the challenges that we collectively face, but also regarding the potential opportunities available to make a tangible positive difference.
We welcome collective efforts to address climate change but also recognise the increasingly volatile and challenging geopolitics and trade relationships in our world. Collective action is getting harder at the very time we need it more.
Recent trades made on behalf of our investors
Let’s now take a look at some of the companies we added in our funds through July. Whether or not these are relevant to you will depend on which fund you’re invested in.
- We added Mirvac to our Ethical Trans-Tasman Fund, a quality real estate developer/asset builder in Australia that has impressive sustainability credentials, especially relative to some property sector peers. These include becoming net positive carbon (Scope 1 and 2) three years ago and having a 0% gender wage gap.
- We swapped AUB Group for Steadfast NZ. Despite similarities between the two insurance brokers, we see better relative value with Steadfast.
- We added CBRE (Global Property Fund). The company is a global leader in commercial real estate services and investments.
- We reduced exposure to Enphase, the solar and energy storage firm. This was mainly due to its sluggish recovery which we believe has weakened the investment case.
What does it all mean?
Interest rates and inflation are a little higher than we might have expected at the tail-end of 2024, but we expect both to continue to ease in the months ahead. The cogs in the global economic engine are also starting to grind a little less smoothly.
Another busy and dramatic month of global events, as we saw in July, appears to be the ‘new normal’ in 2025. As always, short-term headwinds needn’t change how you view your investments.
Our investment team are constantly monitoring the investment landscape on your behalf, and we’ll keep you updated each month. The more clarity you have from us, the more confident you’ll hopefully feel about your investment journey.
The Pathfinder Team
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Pathfinder Asset Management Limited is the issuer of the Pathfinder KiwiSaver Plan and Pathfinder Investment Funds. Product Disclosure Statements for these offers are available at pathfinder.kiwi. Learn more about how we invest ethically by reading our Ethical Investment Policy & Exceptions Register on our website.
