Insights
Market Review for September 2026
Social Media giant Meta fined – though we didn’t ever “Friend” them
Rising interest rates roil September sentiment
Oil price jump, pain at the pump, and trouble for Trump
Lodestone Energy: the first major NZ public offering in 5 years
‘Tis the Season to be Jumpy (or not): what this means for your money
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Against a backdrop of mixed market performance in September (thanks largely to a spike in interest rates on government bonds) we review some of the bigger shake ups, starting with disgraced tech giant Meta.
Social Media giant Meta fined billions in US settlement
One of the most consequential company events being digested by markets in September was the US court fining Meta Platforms (formerly, Facebook.) The company has been required to pay US$18 billion (NZ$32 billion) to US States and Territories and implement mandatory daily time limits for minors and adopt a range of child-protection measures on both its Facebook and Instagram applications. The decision won’t be appealed by the company, as it is part of a mutually-agreed settlement [2].
This outcome is a victory for all those concerned that Meta peddles an addictive and often cynical product range, and aims for user addiction. Pathfinder has not invested in Meta stock, regardless of it being a heavyweight in the US market indexes, but we celebrate the settlement as a caution to other platform companies, and we trust that it will at least send a signal to the tech titans that enterprises cannot be complicit in harmful practices, with ever suffering consequences [3].
Rising interest rates roil September sentiment
September also saw interest rate increases from several major central banks. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, as well as the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand all moved their policy interest rates one notch tighter [4]. Their aim is to nip in the bud any inflationary fall-out from the energy and oil price surge.
Not only short-term interest rates rose over the month, however. The worrying levels of government spending in the US and European Union began to make investors in traditional long-term government bonds rather nervous. The trigger for a sharp wave of selling in sovereign (government) debt markets was a confluence of bad news on inflation, energy prices, and major government deficits, all at a time when there is competition for bond investors’ funds from the massive private sector investment in Artificial Intelligence infrastructure.
Some asset managers who are free to choose between buying long-term bonds from state treasuries or from corporates, now have very well-known IT giants offering long-term bonds that are backed by the future profits from Artificial Intelligence. At times that appears more attractive than bonds backed by strained global tax systems, leading to selling and thus, to higher bond yields. Usually, though, higher yields on safe government debt sooner or later attracts buyers back in.
Oil price jump, pain at the pump, and trouble for Trump
The failure of the combatants to agree to a lasting or credible Persian Gulf compromise again pushed up oil prices in September. The global benchmark (Brent Crude) rose by 14% for the month, while West Texas Intermediate in the US rose by 5%, to US$104 per barrel. [5] Diesel prices have surged even more, peaking at an all-time high of US$6.53 per gallon in late September – but regional differences in tax means that in California, the price was over US$8. The diesel price has jumped by almost 90% this year. In response, the US administration announced a patchy and morally-questionable “deal” with Russia to buy additional supply. That deal may already be endangering Ukraine’s US support level.
This has created a difficult challenge for the US administration in its political messaging, ahead of the 3rd November Congressional Mid-Term elections. The energy price spikes of 2026 have largely (though not entirely) been driven by the US (and Israeli) campaign against Iran and the corresponding Iranian counter-attacks on its energy-producing nearby rivals in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia has been targeted with ballistic missiles and drones hitting its infrastructure and air bases (such as Prince Sultan Air Base).
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) – has also been impacted by aerial projectiles, debris, and strikes near major hubs like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In addition, there have been sporadic attacks on Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and even on Oman. The Straits of Hormuz remain semi-functional, but are only “passable at a shipper’s own risk” and this has led to substantial transshipment and insurance cost pressure, and even to incentive payments to tanker crews willing to risk a passage under risk of bombardment.
Needless to say, the price of the fossil fuel energy – not only crude oil - that is being transported in, or near to, the region has risen and remained elevated [6].
Given the sharp increases in US retail diesel and gasoline prices in the months since mid-year, the US administration is forced to (implausibly) argue that these are short-term blips that will be fully reversed in the event of Iranian capitulation. However, there have already been several false dawns on cease-fire arrangements, and rising downstream costs (transport, packaging, plastics, heating) are pressuring voters in the US, and in many other economies.
That in turn is leading to potential upsets at the voting booths and to sharper shifts in many governments’ constituent parties than has been the norm in recent decades. Although in the US, the Trump Presidency alongside the Republican Congressional majorities are only 22 months old, a swing away from the incumbents in Congress appears to be underway and the speed of electoral disillusionment owes much to the relentless oil price impacts since the Iran war broke out in February.
Lodestone Energy: the first major NZ public offering in 5 years
We firmly believe transition to non-fossil and sustainable energy really needs acceleration. In New Zealand, the upcoming public offering of Lodestone Energy on 22 October – a company long backed by Pathfinder – is an example of how investment in solar and renewable energy can chip gradually away at global over-reliance on vulnerable and polluting carbon-based fuels [7]. Watch this space.
‘Tis the Season to be Jumpy (or not): What this means for your money
September and October are historically a bit more likely to see US share market sell-offs than the other ten months of the year. There is even a fabled “September Effect” in some markets, when traders and investors return grumpily from their Northern Hemisphere summer holidays and take a dimmer view of asset prices: a Seasonally Affective Disorder for stock prices [8] That played out in 2026, and nerves in the AI sectors remain frayed.
As we traverse the fourth quarter, investors are likely to face a few more pockets of short-term uncertainty. There appears little willingness within the US government to conciliate with Iran, and the global bond market is sending strong signals that investors disapprove of reckless gestures when inflation is already running high. Higher interest rates are now baked in for many countries, but that is not entirely negative, and it presents its own set of opportunities. Investment Grade debt tends to reward patient holders with stable payments and the full return of their principal at maturity date.
That said, October often sees market swings, and sentiment often cools at this time of year before resolving, even if that involves a degree of healthy re-assessment or re-evaluation of risks. Remaining composed and relying on a careful portfolio selection and active vigilance can bring longer-term rewards, even when the immediate future appears tense.
When political noise is so elevated, concern is natural, but the adaptability and quality in your investment portfolio is designed to shield it from any enduring capital loss, without either compromising on ethics or withdrawing from parts of the market that still have solid foundations despite their present price fluctuations.
Sources & further reading
Sources and references
[1] Morningstar, “The 10 Best and 10 Worst Months of All Time for the US Stock Market,” by Dan Lefkovitz, 7 October 2026. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/10-best-10-worst-months-all-time-us-stock-market
[5] https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026
[6] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqlym3wye1ero
[7] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68164
[8] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/september-effect.asp
